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Sugar 　　 Raw sugar fluctuates slightly, domestic challenges support 　　 Raw sugar fluctuated slightly yesterday, boosted by expectations of a decline in Brazilian sugar production. The main contract reached a maximum of 14.77 cents per pound, and the lowest fell to 14.54 cents per pound. The final closing price rose 0.41% to close at 14.76 cents per pound. Sugar production in the main sugarcane producing areas in central and southern Brazil is expected to fall to a three-year low in the next year. The lack of replanting reduces sugarcane yields and increases ethanol production. Kingsman estimated 2018-19 sugar production in central and southern Brazil to be 33.99 million tons. Central and southern Brazil accounted for more than 90% of the national Tang sugar production. This level of sugar production means a year-on-year decline of 2.1 million tons, and will be the lowest level since the 31.22 million tons produced in 2015-16. In contrast, the news of the State Reserve’s dumping of reserves is gradually being digested by the market. Although sugar prices fell again during the day, they recovered their lost ground at the end of the afternoon. With reference to the experience of other products, we believe that this dumping of reserves will not affect the medium-term trend of the market. For short- and medium-term investors, they can wait for the price to stabilize and buy 1801 contracts on dips. In terms of option investment, spot traders can carry out the covered option portfolio operation of rolling out slightly out-of-the-money call options on the basis of short-term holdings of the spot. In the next 1-2 years, the covered option portfolio operation can be Continued as an enhancer of spot income; at the same time, for value investors, they can also buy out-of-the-money call options with an exercise price of 6300 to 6400, and wait for the rise in sugar prices to make the out-of-value options become real. Call options with a low exercise price in the previous period and continue to buy a new round of out-of-the-money call options (call options with an exercise price of 6500 or 6600), and gradually choose the opportunity to take profit when the sugar price reaches 6600 yuan/ton or more. 　　Cotton and cotton yarn 　　U.S. cotton continues to fall, and domestic cotton is under pressure to pull back 　　 ICE cotton futures continued to fall yesterday. As concerns about the potential damage to cotton caused by Hurricane Maria diminished, the market waited for the cotton harvest. The main ICE December cotton futures fell 1.05 cents per pound to 68.2 cents per pound. According to the latest USDA data, in the week of September 14, 2017/18 US Cotton signed a net contract of 63,100 tons, an increase of 47,500 tons from the previous month, an increase of 14,600 tons from the previous year; shipments of 41,100 tons, an increase of 15,700 tons from the previous month, an increase of 0.36 year-on-year Ten thousand tons, the contracted quantity accounted for 51% of the estimated export (September USDA), which was higher than the five-year average of 9%; domestically, Zheng Cotton and cotton yarn were under pressure and the final contract of cotton 1801 closed at 15,415 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton, the main 1801 cotton yarn contract closed at 23210 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton. In terms of cotton reserves, 30024 tons were sold on the 4th day of this week. The actual transaction volume was 29,460 tons, with a transaction rate of 98.12%. The average transaction price dropped by 124 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton. The planned volume on September 22 was 2.68. 10,000 tons, including 19,400 tons of Xinjiang cotton. The spot price remained steady and rose slightly. CC Index 3128B reported 15,974 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream yarn spot prices also rose steadily. The price index of 32 combed yarns was 23,400 yuan/ton, and the price index of 40 combed yarns was 26,900 yuan/ton. In short, U.S. cotton continues to fall, and domestic new flowers are gradually listed. In the short term, Zheng Mian will remain volatile due to this impact. In the mid-to-late period, the bullish price will remain unchanged. Investors can wait for U.S. cotton to digest the negatives and gradually buy on dips. At the same time, the cotton yarn spot has gradually strengthened recently, and we can wait for the cotton yarn to stabilize and gradually buy on dips. 　　Soybean Rapeseed Meal 　　 US soybean exports perform strongly 　　CBOT soybeans rose slightly yesterday to close at 970.6 cents/po, but the overall volume is still fluctuating in the range. The weekly export sales report is positive. In the past week, US soybean export sales volume was 2.338 million tons, far higher than market estimates of 1.2-1.5 million tons. At the same time, USDA announced that private exporters sold 132,000 tons of soybeans to China. At present, the market is playing a game between the negative for high yield and the positive for strong demand. The US soybeans have entered the harvest period. As of last Sunday, the harvest rate was 4%, and the excellent and good rate fell 1% to 59% from a week ago. The bad news of Fengchan has been expected, and the continued strong demand will support prices. Compared with before, we are currently relatively optimistic about the market. In addition, with the landing of US production, the later focus will gradually shift to South American soybean planting and growth, and the subject of hype will increase. There was little change in the domestic sector. Soybean stocks at ports and oil plants declined last week, but they are still at a historical high level. The operating rate of oil plants increased to 58.72% last week, and the average daily trading volume of soybean meal increased from 115,000 tons a week ago to 162,000 tons. The soybean meal stocks of oil plants had declined for six consecutive weeks, but they rebounded slightly last week, as of September 17 From 824,900 tons to 837,700 tons. Thanks to the generous profitability and the stocking up before National Day, the oil plant is expected to continue to operate at a high level this week. The spot transaction and delivery volume both increased significantly this week. Yesterday the soybean meal transaction volume was 303,200 tons, the average transaction price was 2819 (+28), and the delivery volume was 79,400 tons. It is expected that soybean meal will continue to follow the US soybean unilaterally, and the basis will remain stable at the current level for the time being. 　　 Grease 　　 Product weaknesses Grease adjustment U.S. soybeans fluctuated slightly yesterday. Due to the strong export demand for U.S. soybeans, strong U.S. demand after a short-term adjustment in the market will also limit the increase in the balance sheet's ending inventory and the stock-to-consumer ratio, and prices may remain weak and fluctuate until Before the seasonal harvest low. The horse market fell yesterday. The output of the horse market is expected to recover quickly in September, including the later period. On the 9th, the export volume of horse palm increased by 20% from the 1st to the 15th, and the export volume to India and the subcontinent has declined. With the recovery of production, the horse market will undergo significant adjustments. Domestic fundamentals have not changed too much. Palm oil stocks are 360,000 tons and soybean oil is 1.37 million tons. The holiday stocking has entered the later stage, and the transaction is gradually decreasing. In the later stage, the pressure of palm oil's arrival in Hong Kong gradually increased. Commodity futures continued to decline yesterday. The bearish atmosphere continued, and the oil and fats followed the weakening. It is recommended to wait and see the market atmosphere in operation. After the risk is released, consider intervening in the long-term rapeseed oil with strong fundamentals. In addition, the basis of palm oil has continued to rise after the rise, and the relative value of soybean oil is also at a relatively high level. The later production is likely to recover quickly. The market has also been adjusted. In arbitrage, consideration may be given to intervening in soybean palm or vegetable palm price differences. 　　Corn and starch 　　 Futures prices rebounded slightly 　　 The domestic corn spot price was generally stable and declined. The purchase price of corn deep processing enterprises in North China continued to fall, while other regions remained stable; the starch spot price was generally stable, and some manufacturers lowered their quotations by 20-30 yuan/ton. In terms of market news, the 29 deep-processing enterprises + port starch stocks tracked by Tianxia Granary have rebounded from 161,700 tons last week to 176,900 tons; on September 21, the sub-loan distribution plan transaction was 48,970 tons of temporary storage corn in 2013, and the actual transaction was 48,953 tons, with an average transaction price of 1335 yuan; China Grain's contract sales plan is to trade 903,801 tons of temporary storage corn in 2014, and the actual transaction is 755,459 tons, with an average transaction price of 1,468 yuan. Corn and starch futures prices fluctuated in early trading, but Masukura moved up slightly in late trading. Looking forward to the later period, considering the high prices in the production and sales areas corresponding to the current long-term corn price, it is not conducive to the actual demand and replenishment demand for new crop corn. Therefore, we maintain a bearish judgment; for starch, considering the impact of environmental inspections or weakening, new production capacity will be added before and after the launch of new crop corn. We expect that the long-term supply and demand will improve, combined with corn futures price expectations, plus We also believe that the future price of starch in far-month is also overestimated for the potential deep processing subsidy policy. In this case, we recommend that investors consider continuing to hold the previous January corn/starch short order or starch-corn spread arbitrage combination, with the high point in late August as a stop loss. 　　Egg 　　 Spot prices continue to fall Chihuahua’s data shows that the national egg prices continue to fall. The average price in the main producing areas has dropped by 0.04 yuan/kg, and the average price in the main sales areas has dropped by 0.13 yuan/kg. Trade monitoring shows that it is easy for traders to receive goods and take goods slowly. The overall situation improved slightly from the previous day. Traders' inventories were low and continued to rise slightly from the previous day. Traders' bearish expectations weakened. Among them, East China and Southwest China had stronger bearish expectations. The egg futures price continued to fall in early trading, gradually rebounded in the afternoon, and closed sharply. Based on the closing price, the January contract rose by 95 yuan, the May contract rose by 45 yuan, and the September contract was nearing expiration. Analyzing the market, it can be seen that the spot price of eggs has continued to fall sharply as expected, and the decline in futures prices is relatively smaller than that of spot prices. The discounts on futures prices have turned into premiums, indicating that market expectations have changed, that is, the expectation that reflects the high drop in spot prices in the past has shifted to the late Spring Festival. From the perspective of market performance, the market may expect that around 4000 will be the bottom area of ??January futures prices. In this case, investors are advised to wait and see. 　　Live pig 　　 keep falling 　　PigEasy.com data shows that the average price of ternary pigs nationwide yesterday was 14.38 yuan/kg, which was another 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day. The price of pigs continued to fall and there was no discussion. The news was received this morning that the purchase price of butcher companies dropped by 0.1 yuan/kg. The northeast price has broken 7, and the North China local area has also fallen, with the mainstream price of 14 yuan/kg. Pig prices in East China have decreased in areas where the price of pigs has fallen, except for Shandong, where prices are still above 14.5 yuan/kg. Henan in central China led the decline, with a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg. The two lakes are temporarily stable, and the mainstream price is 14.3 yuan/kg. South China generally fell by 0.1 yuan/kg, the mainstream price in Guangdong and Guangxi was 14.5 yuan/kg, and Hainan was 14 yuan/kg. Southwest fell 0.1 yuan/kg, Sichuan and Chongqing 15.1 yuan/kg. The legendary gold nine silver ten is the same. There is no favorable short-term price support. It is a fact that the slaughter is increasing. The slaughter companies take advantage of the trend and the increase is not obvious. The pig price is expected to continue to fall. Thermal coal 　　 Port spot stalemate, futures prices callback at high levels 　　 Suppressed by news such as the overall black atmosphere and policy guarantees, the coal futures pulled back sharply yesterday. The main 01 contract closed at 635.6 overnight, and the 1-5 spread narrowed to 56.4. In the spot market, due to the impact of the upcoming 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, some open-pit mines in Shaanxi and Shanxi halted and reduced production. Although Inner Mongolia has liberalized restrictions on pyrotechnic products, the supply of producing areas is still tight, and coal prices at pitheads continue to rise. In terms of ports, coal prices at the port are at a high stalemate. Affected by factors such as high costs and consideration of long-term market risks, traders are not enthusiastic about loading goods, and the downstream is not very accepting of the current high quotations. Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal power Coal fine coal +0 to 702 yuan/ton. On the news, the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued a notice on ensuring coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation, stating that all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities and related enterprises should strengthen the dynamic monitoring and analysis of coal production and transportation needs, and promptly discover and coordinate to solve outstanding problems in supply, and strive to ensure Stable coal supply before and after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Inventories in northern ports fluctuated and rebounded. The average daily shipping volume of Qin Port was 575,000 tons, the average daily railway transfer volume was 660,000 tons, and the port inventory was +8 to 5.62 million tons; Caofeidian Port inventory was -3 to 3.17 million tons, Beijing Tanggang Guotou Port Area's inventory +40 to 1.08 million tons. 　　 The daily consumption of power plants fluctuated and rebounded yesterday. The six major coastal power groups consumed a total of 730,000 tons of coal, and had a total coal inventory of 9.83 million tons, and the available days of coal storage were 13.5 days. 　　 Yesterday, the increase in coastal coal freight rates slowed down. The China Coastal Coal Freight Index reported 1172, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day. 　　 On the whole, important meetings and environmental protection/security inspections in the production area from September to October may continue to restrict the release of supply. Although the daily consumption of downstream power plants has declined, it is still at a relatively high level, and spot support is strong. For the futures market, the 01 contract corresponds to the peak heating season, but there is pressure to replace production capacity in time, and high pressure appears. Pay attention to the overall atmosphere of the surrounding market, the decline in daily consumption and the release of advanced production capacity.